Real Estate Market Is Slowing Slowing Down!!!
All said and done, real estate market is slowing down. The houses above 300k has already shown the slow down. I went to look at some of the pre-constuction oppurtunities. Most of them were 250k. I wondered, if this is what I buy at , I do not what am I going sell at !! 
Any comments. And please guys, Be realistic, for God's sake !!! 
I agree, its slowing down around here too.
IMO it will level out, not necessarily slump down.
I think we may only see 1% appreciation, instead of 10%. I doubt negative appreciation.
My layman's analysis of the economy is that everyone is living beyond their means with the low interest promotions not helping anything. The economy is going to burst but I'm not sure when. Play your cards wisely and you will come out ahead!
For those of you who may be interested in hard numbers, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) publishes Housing Price Indices (HPI) for each Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)which are federally defined communities used for census and other statistical reporting. HPI is the annual percentage price increase for housing. They publish data each quarter. You will find them easily with a GOOGLE search containing "housing price index" and "metropolitan statistical index" as search criteria.
I think your observations are most correct and I am happy to see them, I have been carping away about the softness in the real estate market in my area which is Southern California.
Of course Historicaly certain other events occur at the same time and these events defy stats. You must watch your stats very carefully like most pretty things they can lead you astray.
I watch for smaller numbers. For instance I massaged the MLS and watch how long properties are on the market. I sometimes examine sales to see how they have been played with to effect a closing. 100% financing etc. Remember there was a time when a 50% Loan to Value was the norm. and then it slowly changed. There was a time when no more then 25% of your income could be spent with any safety on housing. There was another time when you always had at least a six month balance in your bank account to cover in case of disruptions in health or income. There was another time when there was but one wage earner in the family unit. Then there was one plus an intermitant as the spouse took occasional employment to buy a new car or to cover education of a child.
All of a sudden the norm came to be two adults employed in every family unit. The living standard advanced,( expense wise) and now things are a little shackey.
Some people have been living on the equity they could borrow on their houses. That is a naughty but it is fun for awhile.
I now deduce a softening in the
Market. I await for a drop in Commercial property prices and then I take off my happy day jacket and put on the Brooks jacket with the hidden pocket.
Of course in Creative aka as "off tempo," Real Estate Intrusions which is what we all do, will do and have done. It does not really matter wether up or down. It is all Transaction, grist for our mill.
My Grandfather favorite saying " I dont mind the up and I dont mind the down, its that terrible time when it stagnates in the middle!"
So heres to movement, both up and down.
May prices tumble and Brokers expound.
Although their work is never done,
Inseparable my nose and thumb!
Container, Lucius
Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't real estate sales vary by the time of the year? I thought around this time of year things started to slow down because of all of the holidays and colder weather that's coming?
I don't know
Mitchell[ Edited by kingmonkey on Date 11/11/2003 ]
True king, but N is in West Palm Beach. If anything prices are increased for the start of the season. There is a lot of product down here above $250K, I rarely see any new product below $200K. Another factor is the end of the year causes some developers to drastcially reduce there invesntory (if any).
You make a great point kingmonkey... I don't have the experience of some of these investors who've been around for awhile to see the trends come and go, but it only makes logical sense to me that prices would always be down in the last quarter due to human nature and social issues. Everyone wraping the year up with shopping and such it would seem like you could get a better fix on what the economy is doing by comparing the retail sales stats during the holidays the the HPI.
By the way thanks to the person who posted the information on the HPI. You have brought new light and a new tool for my analysis. THANK YOU.
What's of more interest to me (and I dont know if I should start this on another thread) but what exactly happens when the so called "bubble" burst...What's the strategy? How do you make a Profit. Cause as a young person I definetly see to many of my peers living while beyond there means. I'm always like "how are you affording all this stuff" we are definitely living in a materialistic "Bling, Bling" era. Generation X has picked the motto to define our era as "Ball til you Fall" ...well from the sounds of things here... The "ball" is soon to stop rolling and The "fall" part of that statement is coming very soon.
Ambitous Architect-
"If you can imagine it I can build it"
Real estate markets are very localized. Try to tell investors in Vegas and Georgia that the market is screaching to a halt. They'll laugh at you.
And even if it is.....People will always need a place to live. You may have to learn new ways of investing, attack different niches, or in an extreme case start investing in a different area.
If the market becomes soft, then desperate sellers become even more desperate.
I firmly believe that opportunities abound and have a difficult time imagining a scenario where there is little opportunity for RE investors who are FIRST problem solvers.
I second hibby76.
It's silly to think that there is a "real estate market".
There IS an average of the "real estate market" maybe taken regionally or nationally.
There are very few local markets which conform to that average.
All you can do is consider such statements as a trend, keeping in mind that many of them may be undocumented.
As always....YMMV.